Results / Scientific Evaluations

In today’s data driven world, communities demand evidence-based program that have been proven successful through rigorous, independent, scientific evaluations.  And while there are many programs that have a successful evaluation in their original site, very few have successfully replicated in new communities. The Cure Violence Health Model has been proven successful in multiple independent evaluations in three unique cities that have each shown large statistically significant reductions in violence due to the program.  Independent evaluations are continuously underway.

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Baltimore Evaluation – CDC/Johns Hopkins

A CDC/Johns Hopkins evaluation showed statistically significant reductions in all four program sites with reductions in killings of up to 56% and in shootings of up to 44% as well as strong evidence of norm change – rejecting the use of violence – in the program community.

Highlights

• 276 conflict mediations
• Reductions in killings of up to 56% and in shootings of up to 44%
• Reductions spread to surrounding communities
• Norms on violence were changed – people in program site were much less likely to accept the use of a gun to settle a dispute; 4 times more likely to show little or no support for gun use.

Learn more about the Baltimore evaluation (summary)

Download the full Baltimore evaluation report

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Chicago Evaluation – NIJ/Northwestern

A NIJ/Northwestern University evaluation showed statistically significant results across all seven communities, reductions in shootings and killings of 41% to 73%, reductions in shooting hot spots of up to 40%, and the elimination of retaliation killings in 5 of 8 communities.

Highlights

• 84% of clients were very high risk
• Reductions in shootings of 41% to 73%
• 100% reductions in retaliation homicides in 5 of 8 communities
• “Overall, the impact of the CeaseFire Program is significant and moderate-to-large in size.”
• “In every program area there was a substantial decline in the median density of shootings following the introduction of CeaseFire.”

Learn more about the Chicago evaluation (summary)

Download the full Chicago evaluation report

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Chicago Evaluation – McCormick Foundation – University of Chicago/UIC Health Policy & Administration

In 2013, the McCormick Foundation commissioned a quantitative and a qualitative evaluation of the 2012/2013 CeaseFire illinois/Cure Violence program in four target police beats in  two Chicago neighborhoods, North Lawndale (Police District 10) and Woodlawn (Police District 3). While the evaluation covered only a one-year time frame, initial data have led to some interesting insights and equally interesting questions that can inform future efforts to reduce violence.The study was designed to evaluate the process through which CeaseFire outreach and violent interruption activities might relate to changes in gun-related violence, including the behavior and decision-making of high-risk individuals living in these neighborhoods.

The Cure Violence approach saves lives in Chicago neighborhoods and is helping to encourage the viability of social program investments in these neighborhoods by other organizations. The Cure Violence approach is additive to what law enforcement does – in fact, it actually accelerates the effectiveness of law enforcement in the battle against violence.

Highlights

• CeaseFire intervention in the targeted districts was associated with a 38% greater decrease in homicides, 1% greater decrease in total violent crimes (including domestic violence), and a 15% greater decrease in shootings as compared to districts that did not receive intervention.
• CeaseFire intervention had a significant positive effect on levels of homicide, shootings, and total violent crime; these effects are significantly greater than the effects that would be expected given the declining trends in crime in the city as a whole.
• The differences in levels of total violent crime, shootings, and homicides appeared within the first month after initiation of the City contract, which provides support for the overall strength of the Cure Violence/Ceasefire approach in reducing violent crime.
• Consistent across all of the qualitative interviews conducted with CeaseFire high-risk participants were individual reports of decreased involvement in crime and violence, with change in behavior attributed to mentoring, primarily around opportunities for employment.

•  High-Risk residents (clients and non-clients) described Ceasefire as a credible community asset primarily due to the staff’s cultural capital of a similar life experience as high-risk residents (i.e. “They lived the life I live”) and strong familial and community social connections.

Learn more about the McCormick Evaluation (Summary)

Download the McCormick Qualitative Evaluation

Download the McCormick Quantitative Evaluation

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New York Evaluation – BJA/Center for Court Innovation

In New York City, a BJA/Center for Court Innovation evaluation showed a 20% lower level of shootings in the program area compared to controls.

Highlights

• 86% of clients were high or medium risk
• More than 100 mediations involving more than 1,000 people
• Average monthly shooting rates decreased by 6%, while increasing in the three comparison areas between 18% and 28%
• Analysis shows that gun violence in Crown Heights was 20% lower than it would have been had gun violence trends mirrored those of the controls

Learn more about the New York evaluation (summary)

Download the full New York evaluation report

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New York Evaluations (NYC-Cure) — John Jay Research & Evaluation Center

In 2011, the New York City Council’s Task Force to Combat Gun Violence recommended the implementation of a new “crisis management system” in five New York City neighborhoods.  This new crisis management system includes strategies from the Cure Violence health model, along with other social and legal services.  The Research & Evaluation Center at John Jay College began assessing the implementation and effects of these efforts in 2013.

The initial survey data collected in 2014 serves as a baseline for measuring changes in violence-related factors in the four study neighborhoods.  The evaluation includes plans for two additional data-collection periods.  Surveys will be conducted in 2015 and 2016 to determine whether violent norms appear to change over time and whether that change is more pronounced in neighborhoods where CV-based programs operate.

The John Jay research team set out to measure changes in attitudes towards violence of young adult men living in the targeted neighborhoods, rather than focusing solely on program participants.  John Jay researchers conducted nearly 800 surveys with men between 18 and 30 years of age residing in four of the treatment areas implementing the City’s violence prevention system — Central Harlem; East New York (Brooklyn); South Jamaica (Queens); and the South Bronx.

“Perceptions of Violence” Survey Results

• Cure Violence programs have established a strong presence in New York City neighborhoods.  Almost 60%  of young males in each neighborhood surveyed recognized the educational materials and at least one staff member of the organizations in each of these neighborhoods.
• Gun violence in these neighborhoods remains a concern.  The majority reported hearing gunfire in their neighborhood at least once in the past 12 months and 23% heard gunshots more than 10 times.
• Violence is common in these neighborhoods.  Eighteen percent of the survey respondents report being stabbed in the past, with almost 40% reporting they had been the target of gunfire in the past.
• Contact with law enforcement is common in these neighborhoods.  Nearly 80% of all respondents reported they had been “stopped, questioned and frisked” in their neighborhoods at least once within the past year.

Download the full “Perceptions of Violence” Survey Results (May, 2015)